Will Boise, Idaho's Median Home Price Hit $1.2 Million by 2033?
As 2024 winds down, one bold prediction has caught the real estate world’s attention: Boise, Idaho’s median home price is forecasted to hit $1.2 million by 2033, according to a recent article by Realtor.com.
Currently, the median home price in Boise is $465,000. This means Realtor.com’s projection anticipates a 158% increase in less than a decade. Is this realistic, or are we dealing with overly optimistic math?
In this article, we’ll break down the factors contributing to this forecast, analyze the pre-pandemic growth rate on which the prediction is based, and evaluate current housing trends, economic conditions, and key challenges that could either propel or stall Boise’s housing market growth.
Realtor.com’s Basis for the $1.2 Million Projection
The Assumption: Pre-Pandemic Growth Continues
Realtor.com’s forecast leans heavily on the 58.2% growth rate observed between 2014 and 2019. During this period, Boise experienced explosive growth driven by low housing prices, population influxes from more expensive states like California, and historically low interest rates.
For perspective, homes that sold for around $100,000 in 2014–2015 are now worth over $400,000. That’s a 4x increase in under a decade, showing just how dramatic the growth has been.
But here’s the catch: those years were a perfect storm. Interest rates were rock-bottom, and Boise was still relatively unknown as a top relocation spot. By 2023, those dynamics had shifted significantly, with rising interest rates and a cooling market tempering the growth trajectory.
Further Reading:
Boise’s Housing Trends and Affordability Challenges in 2023
Key Factors Driving and Hindering Boise’s Housing Growth
1. Local Employment and Wages
For Boise’s housing market to justify a $1.2 million median price tag, residents will need significantly higher incomes. This raises an important question:
What industries or jobs will support these higher home prices?
Boise has grown as a tech and remote work hub, with companies like Micron Technology and Hewlett-Packard influencing the local economy. However, most local industries, including agriculture and manufacturing, don’t offer wages sufficient to support a $1.2 million home price.
The Math Doesn’t Add Up (Yet)
Current median household income in Boise: $79,000 (2023).
Income required to afford a $1.2 million home (with 6.5% interest rates): ~$250,000 annually.
Resource: Curious about wages by industry in Boise? Check out the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for Boise.
2. Interest Rates: The Game-Changer
Interest rates play a huge role in determining affordability. In 2023, mortgage rates hovered between 6.5% and 7.5%, far higher than the 3% rates that fueled the pre-pandemic boom.
Impact of Higher Interest Rates on Affordability:
A $1.2 million home at 6.5% interest requires a $7,600 monthly mortgage payment (assuming 20% down).
Contrast this with the $465,000 median price today, which requires a ~$2,900 payment at the same rate.
To track current mortgage rates, visit Bankrate’s Daily Mortgage Rates.
3. Population Growth and Migration Trends
Boise’s population boomed during the pandemic, with remote workers relocating from urban hubs seeking affordability and quality of life. However, migration patterns have shifted post-pandemic:
Fewer people are leaving states like California and Washington now that remote work is stabilizing.
Boise’s relative affordability has diminished as prices increased, making it less attractive compared to other markets.
Want to dig deeper? The Idaho Department of Labor tracks population growth and migration trends in the state.
4. Inventory and New Construction Trends
One critical variable in Boise’s housing market is inventory. As of late 2024:
Ada County’s vacant lots increased year over year.
Builders pulled 10% more permits in Q2 2024 compared to Q2 2023, signaling optimism about future demand.
However, new construction still hasn’t reached pre-pandemic levels, and many builders are incentivizing buyers with rate buy-downs and concessions to move inventory.
Check out the Boise Regional REALTORS® Housing Market Reports here.
5. Economic Indicators: Inflation, National Debt, and the Dollar
Economic headwinds, such as inflation and rising national debt, complicate the housing market outlook. Boise’s historical growth has been partially fueled by inflation, which increased the cost of materials and home values.
However, inflation also erodes purchasing power. If wages don’t keep pace with inflation, fewer people can afford homes, regardless of price increases.
Additionally, rising national debt and a weakening dollar could drive investors to real estate as a hedge, but it’s unlikely to generate sustained local demand.
For national trends on inflation and housing, check out The Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED).
Are Current Trends Reflective of Pre-Pandemic Growth?
To assess whether Boise is on track to hit $1.2 million, let’s look at current housing data:
Metric2014–2019 (Pre-Pandemic)2023–2024TrendMedian Sales Price Growth58.2% over 5 yearsFlat (~2% YoY)SlowingPending Sales GrowthStrong+32% YoY (Oct. 2024)ImprovingInventory GrowthTight+12% YoYIncreasing SupplyNew Construction PermitsRapid Growth+10% YoY (Q2 2024)Moderate RecoveryUnemployment Rate~3.0%3.7%Slight Increase
Key Observations:
Median price growth is slowing compared to the pre-pandemic boom.
Buyer demand (pending sales) is up year over year but hasn’t reached levels needed to sustain dramatic price increases.
Inventory is increasing, which could put downward pressure on prices if demand doesn’t keep pace.
Will Boise Hit $1.2 Million by 2033? Final Verdict
What Needs to Happen for the Projection to Materialize:
High-wage jobs must flood the market. Tech, healthcare, and remote-friendly industries will need to expand significantly in Boise to support higher home prices.
Interest rates must stabilize or decline. Sustained rates above 6% will make $1.2 million homes unaffordable for the majority of buyers.
Population growth must surge. Boise would need another wave of migration from out-of-state buyers with higher incomes to sustain demand.
Inventory must remain constrained. Oversupply of homes would prevent dramatic price increases.
Challenges to the $1.2 Million Milestone:
Current wage growth and employment trends don’t support a doubling of home prices.
Increasing inventory and distressed sales could dampen price growth.
Economic uncertainty, including inflation and debt, could suppress demand.
Our Take:
While it’s possible for Boise’s housing market to experience significant appreciation over the next nine years, hitting a $1.2 million median sales price by 2033 seems unlikely under current conditions. For this projection to become a reality, Boise would need another “perfect storm” of economic growth, population influx, and housing demand.
What do you think? Are these projections realistic, or is $1.2 million a stretch? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
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